Data-Driven UFC Fight Predictions

Haymaker combines Elo ratings, style matchups, and machine learning to predict the outcome of every UFC fight. Explore fighter profiles, event breakdowns, and model-backed picks.

See Upcoming PredictionsHow the Model Works

4,454

Fighters Tracked

762

Events Analyzed

63.4%

Test Accuracy

82.7%

High-Confidence Picks

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

Saturday, February 21, 2026 · Houston, Texas, USA

Middleweight✗
S
Sean Strickland
Knockout Artist
VS
A
Anthony Hernandez
Wrestler
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Strickland 33%67% Hernandez
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Hernandez)
Full Breakdown →
Welterweight✓
U
Uros Medic
Knockout Artist
VS
G
Geoff Neal
Brawler
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 57%43% Neal
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Brawler — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Neal)
Full Breakdown →
Featherweight✓
M
Melquizael Costa
Wrestler
VS
D
Dan Ige
Brawler
Melquizael Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 65%35% Ige
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Brawler — Wrestler wins 57% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Costa)
Full Breakdown →
Heavyweight✓
S
Serghei Spivac
VS
A
Ante Delija
Serghei Spivac won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Spivac 58%42% Delija
LEAN
→Elo gap: +137(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Delija)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Spivac)
Full Breakdown →
Welterweight✓
J
Jacobe Smith
VS
J
Josiah Harrell
Jacobe Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 69%31% Harrell
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +213(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Smith)
Full Breakdown →
See Full Card →Read Preview →

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Events

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Model Transparency

Full methodology — test accuracy, calibration curves, feature importance, and training details.

How It Works

Step 1

Collect

Every official UFC result, judge scorecard, and fighter stat is scraped and stored after each event.

Step 2

Model

A gradient-boosted ensemble processes Elo ratings, style matchups, and 30+ engineered features for each fight.

Step 3

Predict

Win probabilities, confidence tiers, and top predictive factors are generated for every bout on the upcoming card.