UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Anthony Hernandez (9-2).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 211 points above Hernandez's 1602. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 8 straight.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hernandez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hernandez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Sean Strickland.** We're leaning Hernandez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5). Neal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medic is rated at 1484 — 237 points above Neal's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Medic's striker game against Neal's all-rounder approach. Medic brings a versatile approach, while Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Neal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Uros Medic over Geoff Neal.** The model gives Medic a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Costa.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 315 points above Ige's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Costa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Dan Ige.** The model gives Costa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Ante Delija (1-1).

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 243 points above Delija's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delija throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Ante Delija.** The model gives Spivac a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jacobe Smith (2-0) taking on Josiah Harrell (0-0). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1271 — 328 points above Harrell's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Harrell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacobe Smith over Josiah Harrell.** We're leaning Smith here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Zach Reese (4-2). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pereira at 1113 versus Reese at 993. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pereira's knockout artist game against Reese's wrestler approach. Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Reese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zach Reese over Michel Pereira.** The model gives Reese a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Leal (1-2) taking on Chidi Njokuani (5-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Leal at 1189 versus Njokuani at 1083. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leal throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Leal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Carlos Leal.** The model gives Njokuani a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alibi Idiris (0-1) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Idiris at 973 versus Osbourne at 846. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Idiris throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Idiris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alibi Idiris over Ode Osbourne.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Idiris at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Alden Coria (1-0) taking on Luis Gurule (0-2). Coria is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Coria is rated at 1179 — 417 points above Gurule's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coria throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Coria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Coria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alden Coria over Luis Gurule.** The model is firm on this one: Coria at 76%.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Nora Cornolle (3-2). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 293 points above Cornolle's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cornolle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Nora Cornolle.** We're leaning Edwards here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Soriano at 1288 versus Brahimaj at 1144. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Brahimaj has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Soriano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brahimaj is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Soriano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Punahele Soriano over Ramiz Brahimaj.** The model gives Soriano a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (0-0) taking on Phil Rowe (4-4). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Lebosnoyani carries a modest Elo edge (1093 to 1041), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lebosnoyani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Rowe over Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.** The model gives Rowe a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Yadier del Valle (2-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Leavitt at 1198 versus Valle at 1076. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leavitt throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Valle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Yadier del Valle.** The model gives Leavitt a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Carli Judice (2-1) taking on Juliana Miller (2-2).

Judice is rated at 1183 — 273 points above Miller's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Judice throws significantly more leather — a 7.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Judice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carli Judice over Juliana Miller.** We're leaning Judice here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.