UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Saturday, September 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/9(89%)
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Main Card
Women's Flyweight
Grasso 36%64% Shevchenko
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 37% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Shevchenko)
WelterweightHIT
Jack Della Maddalena won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maddalena 57%43% Holland
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 50% (+6.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Maddalena)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Holland)
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 88%12% Mitchell
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 85% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +42(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Mitchell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Mitchell)
LightweightHIT
Daniel Zellhuber won by Submission (R2)
Zellhuber 79%21% Giagos
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -140(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Zellhuber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Giagos)
FeatherweightMISS
Kyle Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 21%79% Padilla
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 31% (-9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -247(favors Padilla)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.6(favors Padilla)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Nelson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loopy Godinez won by Submission (R2)
Godinez 74%26% Reed
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Godinez)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kopylov 77%23% Fremd
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +304(favors Kopylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Fremd)
Flyweight
Chairez 50%50% Lacerda
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-16.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +579(favors Chairez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Lacerda)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 58%42% Jasudavicius
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 52% (+5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +148(favors Cortez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Cortez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Cortez)
LightweightHIT
Charlie Campbell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Campbell 90%10% Reyes
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +24(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Josefine Knutsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Knutsson 88%12% Mann
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Mann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Mann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mann)