UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Saturday, September 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Flyweight
Grasso 48%52% Shevchenko
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+11.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Shevchenko)
Welterweight✗
Jack Della Maddalena won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maddalena 47%53% Holland
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (-3.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Holland)
Bantamweight✓
Raul Rosas Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 65%35% Mitchell
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +48(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Mitchell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Mitchell)
Lightweight✓
Daniel Zellhuber won by Submission (R2)
Zellhuber 78%22% Giagos
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -175(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Zellhuber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Giagos)
Featherweight✗
Kyle Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 22%78% Padilla
STRONGMarket: 31% (-8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -172(favors Padilla)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.6(favors Padilla)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Nelson)
Women's Strawweight✓
Loopy Godinez won by Submission (R2)
Godinez 67%33% Reed
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Godinez)
Middleweight✓
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kopylov 81%19% Fremd
STRONGMarket: 76% (+4.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Kopylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Fremd)
Flyweight
Chairez 74%26% Lacerda
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +392(favors Chairez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Lacerda)
Women's Flyweight✓
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 64%36% Jasudavicius
LEANMarket: 52% (+12.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Cortez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Cortez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Cortez)
Lightweight✓
Charlie Campbell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Campbell 89%11% Reyes
STRONGMarket: 81% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +36(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
Women's Strawweight✓
Josefine Knutsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Knutsson 88%12% Mann
STRONGMarket: 84% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Mann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Mann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mann)