UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Saturday, October 25, 2025·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates·13 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
Heavyweight
Aspinall 61%39% Gane
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 75% (-13.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Aspinall)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Aspinall)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dern 42%58% Jandiroba
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
LEANMarket: 56% (-13.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -283(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Jandiroba)
BantamweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 87%13% Bautista
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Nurmagomedov)
HeavyweightMISS
Alexander Volkov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Volkov 47%53% Almeida
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.5(favors Almeida)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Murzakanov 58%42% Rakic
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 48% (+10.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Murzakanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Murzakanov)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Quillan Salkilld won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salkilld 68%32% Haqparast
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+15.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -214(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.1(favors Salkilld)
MiddleweightHIT
Ikram Aliskerov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliskerov 54%46% Park
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +220(favors Aliskerov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Aliskerov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Park)
LightweightHIT
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Klein 75%25% Rebecki
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+17.7% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +133(favors Klein)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Rebecki)
HeavyweightHIT
Valter Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 77%23% Sutherland
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +425(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Walker)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 49%51% Delgado
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -44(favors Delgado)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Delgado)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Wood)
HeavyweightHIT
Hamdy Abdelwahab won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Abdelwahab 93%7% Barnett
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+14.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -80(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Abdelwahab)
FlyweightMISS
Mitch Raposo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Raposo 32%68% Maksum
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+11.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -117(favors Maksum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Maksum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Raposo)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Mizuki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mizuki 18%82% Amorim
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -366(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Mizuki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Amorim)