UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, July 8, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO (R3)
Volkanovski 61%39% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Volkanovski)
FlyweightMISS
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Split (R5)
Pantoja 30%70% Moreno
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-6.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -298(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Pantoja)
MiddleweightMISS
Dricus Du Plessis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Plessis 35%65% Whittaker
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+10.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Plessis)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hooker 26%74% Turner
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hooker)
MiddleweightHIT
Bo Nickal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nickal 83%17% Woodburn
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 91% (-7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +75(favors Nickal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Nickal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Nickal)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lawler 31%69% Price
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-3.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Price)
Catch WeightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taira 86%14% Chairez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 91% (-4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +291(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Taira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Taira)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gomes 21%79% Jauregui
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 24% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -28(favors Jauregui)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Jauregui)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Gomes)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Alonzo Menifield won by Submission (R2)
Menifield 44%56% Crute
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 43% (+1.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.8(favors Crute)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Vitor Petrino won by Submission (R3)
Petrino 79%21% Prachnio
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Prachnio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.0(favors Petrino)
BantamweightHIT
Cameron Saaiman won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saaiman 93%7% Mitchell
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+10.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +266(favors Saaiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Saaiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Saaiman)
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aguilar 70%30% Ross
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +197(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Ross)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ross)
LightweightHIT
Esteban Ribovics won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribovics 54%46% Kirk
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -109(favors Kirk)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kirk)