UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Saturday, July 1, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✗
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Strickland 45%55% Magomedov
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +385(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: -15.4(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Strickland)
Lightweight✓
Grant Dawson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawson 54%46% Ismagulov
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+7.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +334(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Ismagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Dawson)
Welterweight✓
Michael Morales won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morales 74%26% Griffin
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+4.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Griffin)
Women's Flyweight✓
Ariane da Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 51%49% Gatto
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -114(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Gatto)
Lightweight✗
Benoit Saint Denis won by Submission (R1)
Denis 37%63% Bonfim
LEAN
→Elo gap: -43(favors Bonfim)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Denis)
Middleweight✗
Nursulton Ruziboev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ruziboev 29%71% Ferreira
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -227(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ferreira)
Welterweight✓
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Submission (R1)
Fakhretdinov 78%22% Lee
STRONGMarket: 65% (+13.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Fakhretdinov)
Featherweight✓
Joanderson Brito won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brito 86%14% Wilson
STRONGMarket: 90% (-4.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +196(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Brito)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Brito)
Women's Featherweight✓
Karol Rosa won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rosa 68%32% Santos
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+5.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Rosa)
Lightweight✓
Elves Brener won by KO/TKO (R3)
Brener 67%33% Kutateladze
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +78(favors Brener)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Brener)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Kutateladze)
Women's Flyweight✓
Luana Carolina won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carolina 51%49% Petrovic
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -116(favors Petrovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Carolina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Petrovic)
Heavyweight✓
Alexandr Romanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Romanov 58%42% Ivanov
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Ivanov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ivanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Romanov)