UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Irene Aldana (8-5).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 305 points above Aldana's 1331. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nunes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nunes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Irene Aldana. We're leaning Nunes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 409 points above Dariush's 1437. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 43% implied while our model sees 54% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Adam Fugitt (2-3). Fugitt will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Malott is rated at 1410 — 599 points above Fugitt's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Malott's all-rounder game against Fugitt's striker approach. Malott is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fugitt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fugitt throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Malott over Adam Fugitt. We're leaning Malott here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Malott at 66% implied while our model sees 71% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4).

Ige is rated at 1235 — 256 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ige's all-rounder game against Landwehr's knockout artist approach. Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Landwehr is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Landwehr is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Ige over Nate Landwehr. The model is firm on this one: Ige at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Ige at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 151 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barriault's all-rounder game against Anders's striker approach. Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anders brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Eryk Anders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barriault at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Barriault, but our model sees only 53%. That 5-point gap favoring Anders is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Chris Curtis (5-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Imavov.

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 618 points above Curtis's 1258. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Imavov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Curtis brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Imavov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Chris Curtis. The model is firm on this one: Imavov at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Imavov at 62% implied while our model sees 81% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Miranda Maverick (8-3). Jasudavicius is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jasudavicius at 1358 versus Maverick at 1264. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Maverick has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maverick throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Jasmine Jasudavicius. We're leaning Maverick here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jasudavicius at 30% implied while our model sees 33% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Aoriqileng (3-4).

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 480 points above Aoriqileng's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aoriqileng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Aoriqileng. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zahabi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Nelson (4-5-1) taking on Blake Bilder (1-1). Nelson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 389 points above Bilder's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bilder throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bilder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Blake Bilder over Kyle Nelson. The model is firm on this one: Bilder at 77%. The market implies 30% for Nelson, but our model sees only 23%. That 7-point gap favoring Bilder is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Steve Erceg (3-3) taking on David Dvorak (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Erceg.

Erceg is rated at 1179 — 223 points above Dvorak's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvorak throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvorak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Erceg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Dvorak over Steve Erceg. The model is firm on this one: Dvorak at 79%. The market implies 29% for Erceg, but our model sees only 21%. That 7-point gap favoring Dvorak is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Diana Belbita (2-5) taking on Maria Oliveira (1-2).

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (792 to 739), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belbita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maria Oliveira over Diana Belbita. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Belbita, but our model sees only 42%. That 14-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.