UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Saturday, May 20, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Strawweight✓
Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dern 59%41% Hill
LEANMarket: 60% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Hill)
Middleweight✓
Anthony Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hernandez 65%35% Shahbazyan
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (-0.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.2(favors Hernandez)
Catch Weight✓
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godinez 61%39% Ducote
LEAN
→Elo gap: +82(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Ducote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Godinez)
Welterweight✓
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R2)
Buckley 69%31% Fialho
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Buckley)
Lightweight✗
Diego Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ferreira 43%57% Johnson
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Ferreira)
Lightweight✗
Viacheslav Borshchev won by KO/TKO (R2)
Borshchev 39%61% Maheshate
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Maheshate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Borshchev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Maheshate)
Women's Strawweight✗
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 47%53% Demopoulos
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Demopoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Demopoulos)
Welterweight✓
Gilbert Urbina won by KO/TKO (R2)
Urbina 53%47% Cosce
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -60(favors Cosce)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Urbina)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Urbina)
Heavyweight✓
Rodrigo Nascimento won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nascimento 65%35% Latifi
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -223(favors Latifi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Nascimento)
Lightweight✓
Chase Hooper won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hooper 59%41% Fiore
LEANMarket: 45% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +13(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Hooper)
Women's Flyweight✓
Natalia Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 78%22% Leonardo
STRONG
→Elo gap: +298(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Silva)
Welterweight✓
Themba Gorimbo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gorimbo 63%37% Sato
LEANMarket: 54% (+9.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Sato)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Sato)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Gorimbo)