UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5).

Almeida carries a modest Elo edge (1428 to 1385), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Almeida's wrestler game against Rozenstruik's striker approach. Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rozenstruik brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 362 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Walker's knockout artist game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Anthony Smith. We're leaning Walker here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Walker at 53% implied while our model sees 72% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Daniel Rodriguez (9-4).

Garry is rated at 1787 — 294 points above Rodriguez's 1494. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Garry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Daniel Rodriguez. We're leaning Garry here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Garry, but our model sees only 66%. That 7-point gap favoring Rodriguez is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5).

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 982 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's all-rounder game against Potieria's striker approach. Ulberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Potieria brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Ihor Potieria. The model is firm on this one: Ulberg at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Ulberg at 80% implied while our model sees 84% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morono at 868, Means at 872. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Tim Means. The model gives Morono a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 164 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Matt Brown. The model is firm on this one: McGee at 77%. The market implies 33% for Brown, but our model sees only 23%. That 9-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Karl Williams (3-0) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Williams is rated at 1106 — 284 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Williams rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Williams over Chase Sherman. The model is firm on this one: Williams at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Williams at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Andrade will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Andrade is rated at 1146 — 214 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Andrade's all-rounder game against Stamann's striker approach. Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Stamann over Douglas Silva de Andrade. The model gives Stamann a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 41% implied while our model sees 45% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mandy Bohm (0-2) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bohm at 849 versus Kim at 723. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bohm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Mandy Bohm. The model gives Kim a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bohm at 31% implied while our model sees 37% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Gabe Green (2-3). Battle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Battle is rated at 1469 — 387 points above Green's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over Gabe Green. The model gives Battle a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tainara Lisboa (2-1) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4). Lisboa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lisboa at 876 versus Clark at 762. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lisboa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tainara Lisboa over Jessica-Rose Clark. The model gives Lisboa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lisboa at 51% implied while our model sees 60% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.