UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Petr Yan (11-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dvalishvili at 1867, Yan at 1869. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Both fighters bring momentum: Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one, while Yan has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Yan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili. The model gives Yan a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 31% implied while our model sees 39% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Alexandr Romanov (6-3). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 447 points above Romanov's 1307. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkov's striker game against Romanov's wrestler approach. Volkov brings a versatile approach, while Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Alexander Volkov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romanov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 284 points above Spann's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krylov's wrestler game against Spann's knockout artist approach. Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Ryan Spann. We're leaning Krylov here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Krylov at 60% implied while our model sees 72% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Said Nurmagomedov (7-3).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 162 points above Nurmagomedov's 1181. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martinez brings a versatile approach, while Nurmagomedov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Jonathan Martinez. We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bautista.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 561 points above Cannetti's 1005. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bautista looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cannetti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bautista the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Bautista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Guido Cannetti. The model is firm on this one: Bautista at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Anton Turkalj (0-3).

Petrino is rated at 1195 — 470 points above Turkalj's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turkalj throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Turkalj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anton Turkalj over Vitor Petrino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Turkalj at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Karl Williams (3-0) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5).

Williams is rated at 1106 — 299 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Williams rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brzeski throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brzeski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lukasz Brzeski over Karl Williams. The model gives Brzeski a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Williams, but our model sees only 42%. That 21-point gap favoring Brzeski is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6). Grant is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Grant at 1200 versus Assuncao at 1099. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Davey Grant. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Assuncao at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Grant, but our model sees only 50%. That 7-point gap favoring Assuncao is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Fremd (2-3) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-3). Dumas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fremd carries a modest Elo edge (894 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Fremd's wrestler game against Dumas's striker approach. Fremd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dumas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fremd throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fremd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sedriques Dumas over Josh Fremd. We're leaning Dumas here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Fremd, but our model sees only 26%. That 8-point gap favoring Dumas is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Victor Henry (3-2) taking on Tony Gravely (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Henry at 1135 versus Gravely at 1012. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Henry's all-rounder game against Gravely's striker approach. Henry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gravely brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Gravely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Gravely over Victor Henry. The model gives Gravely a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Henry, but our model sees only 44%. That 14-point gap favoring Gravely is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-7) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aldrich at 1079 versus Silva at 976. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's all-rounder game against Aldrich's striker approach. Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldrich brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Ariane da Silva. We're leaning Aldrich here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-4) taking on Tyson Nam (3-4). Nam is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1203 — 215 points above Nam's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's all-rounder game against Nam's striker approach. Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nam brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nam throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Nam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Nam over Bruno Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nam at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlston Harris (4-2) taking on Jared Gooden (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1097 versus Gooden at 960. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Harris's wrestler game against Gooden's knockout artist approach. Harris looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gooden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gooden throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gooden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlston Harris over Jared Gooden. We're leaning Harris here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Harris, but our model sees only 69%. That 6-point gap favoring Gooden is worth watching.