UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Saturday, March 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 11/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Jon Jones won by Submission (R1)
Jones 48%52% Gane
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-11.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gane)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Jones)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Alexa Grasso won by Submission (R4)
Grasso 25%75% Shevchenko
STRONGMarket: 12% (+12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -325(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Shevchenko)
WelterweightHIT
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R3)
Rakhmonov 78%22% Neal
STRONGMarket: 81% (-2.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Rakhmonov)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Gamrot won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gamrot 62%38% Turner
LEANMarket: 64% (-1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Gamrot)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Gamrot)
MiddleweightHIT
Bo Nickal won by Submission (R1)
Nickal 88%12% Pickett
STRONGMarket: 92% (-4.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Nickal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Pickett)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garbrandt 56%44% Jones
LEANMarket: 61% (-4.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +306(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Garbrandt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Garbrandt)
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Plessis 76%24% Brunson
STRONGMarket: 67% (+8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Brunson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribas 67%33% Araujo
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+14.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ribas)
MiddleweightHIT
Marc-Andre Barriault won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barriault 58%42% Marquez
LEANMarket: 57% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Marquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Marquez)
WelterweightHIT
Ian Machado Garry won by KO/TKO (R3)
Garry 79%21% Kenan
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +172(favors Garry)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Garry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Garry)
BantamweightHIT
Cameron Saaiman won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Saaiman 79%21% Martinez
STRONGMarket: 71% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +112(favors Saaiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Martinez)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Submission (R2)
Ricci 72%28% Penne
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Ricci)
BantamweightMISS
Farid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 49%51% Blackshear
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Blackshear)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Blackshear)
LightweightHIT
Loik Radzhabov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Radzhabov 58%42% Ribovics
LEANMarket: 67% (-8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ribovics)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ribovics)