UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Saturday, February 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Flyweight✗
Erin Blanchfield won by Submission (R2)
Blanchfield 47%53% Andrade
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -186(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Blanchfield)
Light Heavyweight✓
Zac Pauga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pauga 68%32% Wright
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +123(favors Pauga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Pauga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Wright)
Heavyweight✓
Jamal Pogues won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pogues 70%30% Parisian
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +43(favors Pogues)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Parisian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Parisian)
Light Heavyweight✗
Marcin Prachnio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Prachnio 49%51% Knight
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+4.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Prachnio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Knight)
Lightweight✓
Alexander Hernandez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hernandez 63%37% Miller
LEANMarket: 66% (-3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -317(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Miller)
Lightweight✓
Nazim Sadykhov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Sadykhov 65%35% Elder
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +96(favors Sadykhov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Elder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Elder)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Mayra Bueno Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 85%15% Lansberg
STRONGMarket: 81% (+4.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +331(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lansberg)
Featherweight✗
Jamall Emmers won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emmers 36%64% Askhabov
LEANMarket: 38% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -45(favors Askhabov)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Emmers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Emmers)
Light Heavyweight✗
Philipe Lins won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lins 48%52% Preux
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Lins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Lins)
Welterweight✗
AJ Fletcher won by Submission (R2)
Fletcher 49%51% Gorimbo
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -134(favors Gorimbo)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Fletcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Fletcher)
Flyweight✓
Clayton Carpenter won by Submission (R1)
Carpenter 85%15% Ronderos
STRONGMarket: 76% (+9.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +66(favors Carpenter)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Ronderos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ronderos)