UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Mateusz Gamrot (8-3). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 275 points above Gamrot's 1571. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamrot throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Montel Jackson (9-2). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Figueiredo carries a modest Elo edge (1490 to 1448), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jackson has won 6 straight.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 314 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Vicente Luque.** The model gives Alvarez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mario Pinto (1-0) taking on Jhonata Diniz (3-1).

Pinto is rated at 1264 — 233 points above Diniz's 1031. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diniz throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jhonata Diniz over Mario Pinto.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diniz at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Kaan Ofli (1-2) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6). Ramos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ofli is rated at 1085 — 257 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ofli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Kaan Ofli.** The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Michael Aswell Jr. (0-1) taking on Lucas Almeida (2-3). Almeida is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jr. is rated at 1048 — 243 points above Almeida's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Aswell Jr. over Lucas Almeida.** The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jafel Filho (2-2) taking on Clayton Carpenter (2-1).

Filho is rated at 1193 — 202 points above Carpenter's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carpenter throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Filho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Carpenter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clayton Carpenter over Jafel Filho.** The model gives Carpenter a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Thomas Petersen (2-2). Petrino will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Petrino is rated at 1195 — 267 points above Petersen's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petersen throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Petersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petrino at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bia Mesquita (0-0) taking on Irina Alekseeva (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Alekseeva.

Mesquita is rated at 1083 — 255 points above Alekseeva's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alekseeva throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alekseeva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mesquita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bia Mesquita over Irina Alekseeva.** The model gives Mesquita a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Lucas Rocha (0-1) taking on Stewart Nicoll (0-1).

Rocha is rated at 1001 — 174 points above Nicoll's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicoll throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicoll is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha.** The model gives Nicoll a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Julia Polastri (1-2) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Polastri is rated at 1106 — 235 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Polastri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.** The model gives Polastri a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Luan Lacerda (0-2) taking on Saimon Oliveira (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lacerda.

Lacerda is rated at 901 — 242 points above Oliveira's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lacerda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Saimon Oliveira over Luan Lacerda.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.