UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Thompson carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1257), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against Holland's all-rounder approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Stephen Thompson.** We're leaning Holland here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 38% for Thompson, but our model sees only 26%. That 11-point gap favoring Holland is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Barberena is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 322 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Bryan Barberena.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anjos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7). Schnell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nicolau at 1033 versus Schnell at 899. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicolau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Matt Schnell.** The model is firm on this one: Nicolau at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Nicolau at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Pavlovich will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 556 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pavlovich is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tuivasa brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pavlovich the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Tai Tuivasa.** The model is firm on this one: Pavlovich at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 429 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dolidze is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dolidze the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Roman Dolidze.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dolidze at 34% implied while our model sees 44% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Kyle Daukaus (3-4).

Daukaus carries a modest Elo edge (1170 to 1106), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Daukaus's wrestler approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Daukaus looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Eryk Anders.** We're leaning Daukaus here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Phil Rowe (4-4) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Rowe is rated at 1041 — 225 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Rowe over Niko Price.** The model gives Rowe a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rowe at 51% implied while our model sees 64% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Emily Ducote (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hill at 1074 versus Ducote at 952. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ducote throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Ducote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Emily Ducote over Angela Hill.** The model gives Ducote a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Hill, but our model sees only 39%. That 3-point gap favoring Ducote is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5).

Holtzman carries a modest Elo edge (988 to 926), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Clay Guida.** We're leaning Holtzman here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 194 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Michael Johnson.** The model is firm on this one: Diakiese at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-3) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Pearce at 996. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Darren Elkins.** The model is firm on this one: Pearce at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Pearce at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Natan Levy (2-1) taking on Genaro Valdez (0-2).

Levy is rated at 974 — 260 points above Valdez's 714. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Levy throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Levy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Levy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Natan Levy over Genaro Valdez.** The model is firm on this one: Levy at 78%.

The Featherweight matchup features Francis Marshall (2-2) taking on Marcelo Rojo (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marshall at 933 versus Rojo at 784. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rojo throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rojo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Marshall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Marshall over Marcelo Rojo.** The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yazmin Jauregui (3-1) taking on Istela Nunes (0-4).

Jauregui is rated at 948 — 258 points above Nunes's 691. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jauregui throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jauregui has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui over Istela Nunes.** The model is firm on this one: Jauregui at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Jauregui at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.