UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-4).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 445 points above Adesanya's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's all-rounder game against Adesanya's striker approach. Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Adesanya brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Adesanya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Alex Pereira.** The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Weili.

Weili is rated at 1649 — 375 points above Esparza's 1274. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Weili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Zhang Weili.** The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Michael Chandler (2-4).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 362 points above Chandler's 1319. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Chandler's all-rounder approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Chandler is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Michael Chandler.** We're leaning Poirier here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gutierrez.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gutierrez at 1298 versus Edgar at 1185. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Frankie Edgar.** The model is firm on this one: Gutierrez at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Gutierrez at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-3). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 410 points above Puelles's 1040. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Puelles the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Puelles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Dan Hooker.** The model gives Puelles a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Brad Riddell (4-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Moicano.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 454 points above Riddell's 1088. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Riddell's striker approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Riddell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Riddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Riddell over Renato Moicano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Riddell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Moicano, but our model sees only 48%. That 7-point gap favoring Riddell is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-4).

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 412 points above Spann's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Spann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Reyes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Ryan Spann.** We're leaning Reyes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Blanchfield will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 797 points above McCann's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanchfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Molly McCann.** The model is firm on this one: Blanchfield at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Blanchfield at 78% implied while our model sees 91% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Wellington Turman (3-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Petroski at 967 versus Turman at 866. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Petroski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Turman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Turman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wellington Turman over Andre Petroski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Turman at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Petroski, but our model sees only 50%. That 13-point gap favoring Turman is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-5-1) taking on Ottman Azaitar (2-2).

Frevola is rated at 1093 — 241 points above Azaitar's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ottman Azaitar over Matt Frevola.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Azaitar at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Frevola at 39% implied while our model sees 47% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kowalkiewicz at 871, Juarez at 847. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kowalkiewicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Silvana Gomez Juarez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kowalkiewicz at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Michael Trizano (3-3) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6). Choi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Trizano is rated at 1073 — 252 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trizano's all-rounder game against Choi's striker approach. Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Choi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: SeungWoo Choi over Michael Trizano.** The model gives Choi a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Julio Arce (5-4). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 281 points above Arce's 1167. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Arce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julio Arce over Montel Jackson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arce at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Jackson, but our model sees only 46%. That 18-point gap favoring Arce is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ulberg.

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 784 points above Negumereanu's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Negumereanu has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's all-rounder game against Negumereanu's striker approach. Ulberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Negumereanu brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu over Carlos Ulberg.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Negumereanu at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.