UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Saturday, October 22, 2022·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R2)
Makhachev 59%41% Oliveira
LEANMarket: 64% (-5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -293(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Makhachev)
Bantamweight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sterling 71%29% Dillashaw
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Dillashaw)
Bantamweight✗
Sean O'Malley won by Decision - Split (R3)
O'Malley 23%77% Yan
STRONGMarket: 28% (-5.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -246(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Yan)
Lightweight✗
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 29%71% Gamrot
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gamrot)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Gamrot)
Women's Flyweight✓
Manon Fiorot won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiorot 61%39% Cerminara
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Fiorot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Fiorot)
Welterweight✓
Belal Muhammad won by KO/TKO (R2)
Muhammad 52%48% Brady
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+8.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +216(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Brady)
Middleweight✓
Caio Borralho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borralho 73%27% Muradov
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Muradov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Borralho)
Light Heavyweight✓
Nikita Krylov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krylov 57%43% Oezdemir
LEANMarket: 63% (-5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Krylov)
Welterweight✗
Abubakar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 47%53% Omargadzhiev
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Nurmagomedov)
Middleweight✓
Armen Petrosyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petrosyan 64%36% Dobson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +99(favors Petrosyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Petrosyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dobson)
Flyweight✓
Muhammad Mokaev won by Submission (R3)
Mokaev 87%13% Gordon
STRONGMarket: 90% (-3.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Mokaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +9.2(favors Mokaev)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Karol Rosa won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Rosa 89%11% Lansberg
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rosa)