UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Song Yadong (11-3-1). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 160 points above Yadong's 1548. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Cory Sandhagen. The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Chidi Njokuani (5-4). Njokuani will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 432 points above Njokuani's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Gregory Rodrigues. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Njokuani at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Bill Algeo (5-4).

Fili is rated at 1140 — 226 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bill Algeo over Andre Fili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Algeo at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Fili, but our model sees only 50%. That 4-point gap favoring Algeo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Alen Amedovski (0-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Pyfer.

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 881 points above Amedovski's 649. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amedovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Amedovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pyfer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Alen Amedovski. The model is firm on this one: Pyfer at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Pyfer at 82% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2) taking on Tanner Boser (4-5). Nascimento will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nascimento at 1092 versus Boser at 984. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nascimento's all-rounder game against Boser's striker approach. Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boser brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Rodrigo Nascimento. We're leaning Boser here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 648 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hernandez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hernandez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Marc-Andre Barriault. We're leaning Hernandez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Pat Sabatini (7-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jackson.

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 385 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Damon Jackson. We're leaning Sabatini here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on Louis Cosce (0-1). Giles is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Giles carries a modest Elo edge (845 to 802), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cosce throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cosce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Louis Cosce. We're leaning Giles here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Denise Gomes (5-2).

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 282 points above Lookboonmee's 1089. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Gomes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Lookboonmee's striker game against Gomes's all-rounder approach. Lookboonmee brings a versatile approach, while Gomes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gomes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Denise Gomes over Loma Lookboonmee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gomes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Lookboonmee, but our model sees only 48%. That 17-point gap favoring Gomes is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Trey Ogden (3-2) taking on Daniel Zellhuber (3-2). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ogden at 1077, Zellhuber at 1082. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Ogden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Zellhuber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ogden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogden throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Zellhuber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber over Trey Ogden. We're leaning Zellhuber here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ogden at 21% implied while our model sees 30% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Mariya Agapova (2-3). Agapova will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 515 points above Agapova's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Agapova throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Agapova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Mariya Agapova. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 58% implied while our model sees 63% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Javid Basharat (3-2) taking on Tony Gravely (4-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Basharat.

There's a real Elo separation here: Basharat at 1101 versus Gravely at 1012. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Tony Gravely. The model gives Basharat a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nikolas Motta (3-2) taking on Cameron VanCamp (0-1). VanCamp is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Motta is rated at 1072 — 265 points above VanCamp's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. VanCamp throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. VanCamp is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Motta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikolas Motta over Cameron VanCamp. The model gives Motta a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.