UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8).

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 492 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Tony Ferguson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diaz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Diaz at 42% implied while our model sees 53% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 730 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chimaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Kevin Holland.** The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Chimaev at 82% implied while our model sees 86% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6). Rodriguez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 224 points above Jingliang's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Jingliang's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jingliang brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Li Jingliang.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Jingliang is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 186 points above Chiasson's 1145. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiasson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Irene Aldana.** The model gives Chiasson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Aldana, but our model sees only 38%. That 25-point gap favoring Chiasson is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 285 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Walker's striker game against Cutelaba's submission artist approach. Walker brings a versatile approach, while Cutelaba is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Johnny Walker.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Walker at 36% implied while our model sees 49% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Hakeem Dawodu (6-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Erosa.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 191 points above Dawodu's 1090. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Erosa's all-rounder game against Dawodu's striker approach. Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dawodu brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Julian Erosa.** The model is firm on this one: Dawodu at 80%. The market implies 34% for Erosa, but our model sees only 20%. That 15-point gap favoring Dawodu is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Anton Turkalj (0-3).

Almeida is rated at 1428 — 702 points above Turkalj's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Turkalj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Anton Turkalj.** We're leaning Almeida here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Denis Tiuliulin (1-4) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tiuliulin at 756 versus Pickett at 673. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiuliulin throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Pickett over Denis Tiuliulin.** The model gives Pickett a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Tiuliulin, but our model sees only 43%. That 3-point gap favoring Pickett is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Barnett (2-3) taking on Jake Collier (5-8). Collier is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barnett carries a modest Elo edge (861 to 794), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barnett's striker game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Barnett brings a versatile approach, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Collier over Chris Barnett.** The model is firm on this one: Collier at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Barnett at 19% implied while our model sees 23% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Danyelle Wolf (0-0). Wolf is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 600 points above Wolf's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Wolf has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Norma Dumont over Danyelle Wolf.** The model is firm on this one: Dumont at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Dumont at 77% implied while our model sees 91% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alatengheili (5-2-1) taking on Chad Anheliger (2-2).

Alatengheili is rated at 1129 — 237 points above Anheliger's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anheliger throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alatengheili over Chad Anheliger.** The model gives Alatengheili a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Elise Reed (4-4) taking on Melissa Martinez (1-1). Martinez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Reed carries a modest Elo edge (933 to 885), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reed throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melissa Martinez over Elise Reed.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martinez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Yohan Lainesse (1-2) taking on Darian Weeks (0-2). Lainesse is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lainesse at 780, Weeks at 796. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weeks throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lainesse is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lainesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yohan Lainesse over Darian Weeks.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lainesse at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lainesse at 48% implied while our model sees 53% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.