UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Saturday, August 20, 2022·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Leon Edwards won by KO/TKO (R5)
Edwards 23%77% Usman
STRONGMarket: 25% (-1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -358(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Edwards)
Middleweight✓
Paulo Costa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Costa 68%32% Rockhold
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-7.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Rockhold)
Bantamweight✓
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvalishvili 68%32% Aldo
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.8(favors Dvalishvili)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Lucie Pudilova won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pudilova 40%60% Yanan
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Yanan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Yanan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Yanan)
Light Heavyweight✓
Tyson Pedro won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pedro 89%11% Hunsucker
STRONGMarket: 87% (+1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +310(favors Pedro)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pedro)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hunsucker)
Heavyweight✗
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Tybura 36%64% Romanov
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Romanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Romanov)
Lightweight✓
Jared Gordon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gordon 74%26% Santos
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+2.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Gordon)
Featherweight
Woodson 81%19% Saldana
STRONGMarket: 77% (+4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +6(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Woodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Saldana)
Welterweight✗
Ange Loosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Loosa 40%60% Fletcher
LEAN
→Elo gap: -33(favors Fletcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Fletcher)
Flyweight✓
Amir Albazi won by Submission (R1)
Albazi 81%19% Figueiredo
STRONGMarket: 81% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +127(favors Albazi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Albazi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Figueiredo)
Bantamweight✓
Aoriqileng won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aoriqileng 54%46% Perrin
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +66(favors Aoriqileng)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Aoriqileng)
Flyweight✗
Victor Altamirano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Altamirano 47%53% Lacerda
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-13.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +134(favors Altamirano)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lacerda)