UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Julianna Pena (8-3).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 313 points above Pena's 1323. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Julianna Pena. We're leaning Nunes here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moreno.

Moreno carries a modest Elo edge (1410 to 1351), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Moreno's all-rounder game against Kara-France's striker approach. Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Kai Kara-France. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10). Pavlovich will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 297 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Pavlovich a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Alex Perez (7-6).

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 204 points above Perez's 1293. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Alex Perez. The model gives Pantoja a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Pantoja, but our model sees only 56%. That 7-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 703 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ankalaev's striker game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Ankalaev brings a versatile approach, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Anthony Smith. The model is firm on this one: Ankalaev at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Ankalaev at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-5). Semelsberger is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morono at 868, Semelsberger at 861. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Morono's all-rounder game against Semelsberger's knockout artist approach. Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Semelsberger is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Semelsberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Alex Morono. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Semelsberger at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Rafael Alves (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dober at 1083 versus Alves at 958. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Rafael Alves. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dober at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Dober, but our model sees only 51%. That 14-point gap favoring Alves is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-6) taking on Hamdy Abdelwahab (1-1). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Abdelwahab is rated at 1048 — 199 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mayes throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Abdelwahab has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab over Don'Tale Mayes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Abdelwahab at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Rafa Garcia (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Klose at 1397, Garcia at 1419. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Klose's striker game against Garcia's wrestler approach. Klose brings a versatile approach, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Rafa Garcia. The model gives Klose a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Klose, but our model sees only 59%. That 6-point gap favoring Garcia is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Adam Fugitt (2-3).

Morales is rated at 1853 — 1042 points above Fugitt's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fugitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Morales over Adam Fugitt. The model is firm on this one: Morales at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Morales at 84% implied while our model sees 93% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6).

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 597 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Edwards's wrestler game against Kim's striker approach. Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kim brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Ji Yeon Kim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edwards at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5). Negumereanu will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Negumereanu is rated at 1019 — 198 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Negumereanu rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Negumereanu throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Negumereanu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Potieria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu over Ihor Potieria. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Negumereanu at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Orion Cosce (1-1) taking on Blood Diamond (0-2). Diamond will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cosce at 800, Diamond at 791. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cosce throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cosce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Cosce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Orion Cosce over Blood Diamond. The model gives Cosce a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.