UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 58%42% Reyes
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Reyes)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jimmy Crute won by Submission (R1)
Crute 62%38% Erslan
LEAN
→Elo gap: +218(favors Crute)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Crute)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Crute)
FeatherweightHIT
Jack Jenkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jenkins 52%48% Taveras
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -83(favors Taveras)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jenkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Jenkins)
WelterweightMISS
Neil Magny won by Submission (R3)
Magny 41%59% Matthews
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Magny)
LightweightMISS
Tom Nolan won by Submission (R1)
Nolan 45%55% Campbell
LEAN
→Elo gap: -54(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Nolan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Campbell)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Navajo Stirling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stirling 64%36% Bellato
LEAN
→Elo gap: -2(favors Bellato)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Stirling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bellato)
MiddleweightMISS
Cam Rowston won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rowston 48%52% Petroski
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -145(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Petroski)
LightweightHIT
Jamie Mullarkey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mullarkey 53%47% Bedoya
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +59(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Bedoya)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Mullarkey)
BantamweightHIT
Colby Thicknesse won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thicknesse 51%49% Musasa
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +41(favors Thicknesse)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Musasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Musasa)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Michelle Montague won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Montague 51%49% Carolina
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -157(favors Carolina)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Carolina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Carolina)
HeavyweightMISS
Brando Pericic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pericic 44%56% Ellison
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ellison)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ellison)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ellison)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Alexia Thainara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thainara 37%63% Lookboonmee
LEAN
→Elo gap: -116(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lookboonmee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Thainara)