UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Brian Ortega (8-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1490), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Brian Ortega.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 37% implied while our model sees 58% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Lemos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 428 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Waterson-Gomez's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lemos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** We're leaning Lemos here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jingliang at 1270 versus Salikhov at 1183. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Li Jingliang.** The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Sumudaerji (4-4).

Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 154 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sumudaerji is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell.** We're leaning Sumudaerji here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Burgos at 1365, Jourdain at 1354. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jourdain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Burgos over Charles Jourdain.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burgos at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Burgos, but our model sees only 50%. That 11-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Murphy at 1171 versus Tate at 1077. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy.** We're leaning Tate here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4). Lungiambula will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 549 points above Lungiambula's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Soriano's wrestler game against Lungiambula's striker approach. Soriano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lungiambula brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lungiambula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula.** The model is firm on this one: Soriano at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Soriano at 70% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Jack Shore (6-2). Shore is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Simon is rated at 1223 — 154 points above Shore's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Simon over Jack Shore.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Simon at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 38% implied while our model sees 50% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-4) taking on Herbert Burns (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

There's a real Elo separation here: Algeo at 914 versus Burns at 770. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Algeo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Algeo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns.** We're leaning Algeo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Da Woon Jung (4-3-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 395 points above Jung's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Jung's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Dustin Jacoby.** The model gives Jung a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6) taking on Dwight Grant (3-4).

Stoltzfus is rated at 1012 — 182 points above Grant's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stoltzfus's submission artist game against Grant's striker approach. Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus over Dwight Grant.** The model gives Stoltzfus a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Emily Ducote (2-2) taking on Jessica Penne (3-5). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ducote at 952 versus Penne at 803. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ducote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ducote at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Ducote, but our model sees only 53%. That 7-point gap favoring Penne is worth watching.