UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✗
Diego Lopes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lopes 50%50% Silva
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Lopes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Lopes)
Bantamweight✗
David Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 49%51% Font
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -453(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Font)
Lightweight✓
Rafa Garcia won by KO/TKO (R3)
Garcia 66%34% Gordon
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -148(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Garcia)
Middleweight✓
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 52%48% Stoltzfus
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Stoltzfus)
Lightweight✓
Alexander Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hernandez 52%48% Ferreira
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hernandez)
Bantamweight✓
Santiago Luna won by KO/TKO (R1)
Luna 53%47% Le
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -3(favors Le)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Le)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Le)
Middleweight✓
Dusko Todorovic won by Submission (R1)
Todorovic 63%37% Medina
LEAN
→Elo gap: -73(favors Medina)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Todorovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Todorovic)
Lightweight✗
Joaquim Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 28%72% Puelles
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Puelles)
Women's Strawweight✓
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 67%33% Lemos
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Suarez)
Flyweight✓
Jesus Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 58%42% Gurule
LEAN
→Elo gap: +241(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gurule)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Gurule)
Middleweight
Reese 58%42% Dumas
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Reese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Reese)
Flyweight✓
Alden Coria won by KO/TKO (R3)
Coria 53%47% Costa
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -96(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Costa)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Montse Rendon won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rendon 35%65% Pereira
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -22(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Rendon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Rendon)
Welterweight✓
Daniil Donchenko won by KO/TKO (R1)
Donchenko 52%48% Sezinando
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sezinando)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sezinando)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sezinando)