UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Rob Font (12-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vera at 1460 versus Font at 1361. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over Marlon Vera. The model gives Font a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Vera, but our model sees only 37%. That 11-point gap favoring Font is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Jake Collier (5-8).

Arlovski carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 794), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Collier over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Collier a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brito at 1283 versus Fili at 1140. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brito's submission artist game against Fili's striker approach. Brito is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Fili brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Joanderson Brito. We're leaning Fili here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Dawson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dawson at 1336 versus Gordon at 1209. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dawson's wrestler game against Gordon's striker approach. Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Jared Gordon. The model gives Dawson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Tristan Connelly (1-1). Elkins will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 167 points above Connelly's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Connelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Tristan Connelly. The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Elkins, but our model sees only 57%. That 5-point gap favoring Connelly is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 355 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jotko's striker game against Meerschaert's submission artist approach. Jotko brings a versatile approach, while Meerschaert is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Gerald Meerschaert. The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Jotko, but our model sees only 60%. That 4-point gap favoring Meerschaert is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10). Sherman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 485 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romanov's wrestler game against Sherman's striker approach. Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sherman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Chase Sherman. The model is firm on this one: Romanov at 79%.

The Flyweight matchup features Francisco Figueiredo (2-1) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

Figueiredo is rated at 954 — 335 points above Lacerda's 619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Figueiredo over Daniel Lacerda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 47% implied while our model sees 50% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabe Green (2-3) taking on Yohan Lainesse (1-2). Lainesse is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Green is rated at 1082 — 302 points above Lainesse's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lainesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yohan Lainesse over Gabe Green. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lainesse at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Natan Levy (2-1) taking on Mike Breeden (0-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Levy at 974, Breeden at 972. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breeden throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Levy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Levy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natan Levy over Mike Breeden. We're leaning Levy here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Levy at 66% implied while our model sees 72% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Shanna Young (1-2) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5). Mazany will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Young is rated at 891 — 195 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazany throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazany is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Mazany has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gina Mazany over Shanna Young. The model gives Mazany a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Young at 36% implied while our model sees 40% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.