UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7). Luque will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 497 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Belal Muhammad. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (0-1). Borralho will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Borralho is rated at 1570 — 728 points above Omargadzhiev's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omargadzhiev throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Omargadzhiev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Omargadzhiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Caio Borralho. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Omargadzhiev at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Borralho at 47% implied while our model sees 50% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Andre Fialho (2-4) taking on Miguel Baeza (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fialho at 865, Baeza at 850. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Fialho brings a versatile approach, while Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Andre Fialho. We're leaning Baeza here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 38% for Fialho, but our model sees only 32%. That 7-point gap favoring Baeza is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1) taking on Wu Yanan (1-4).

Silva is rated at 1016 — 313 points above Yanan's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanan throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Yanan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva over Wu Yanan. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on TJ Laramie (0-1). Sabatini is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 570 points above Laramie's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sabatini throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over TJ Laramie. We're leaning Sabatini here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mounir Lazzez (2-1) taking on Ange Loosa (2-2). Lazzez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lazzez carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 934), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lazzez throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lazzez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Loosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mounir Lazzez over Ange Loosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lazzez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Lazzez, but our model sees only 50%. That 14-point gap favoring Loosa is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on William Knight (3-3). Clark is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Clark at 944 versus Knight at 838. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against Knight's all-rounder approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while Knight is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over William Knight. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Pannie Kianzad (5-5) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6).

Kianzad carries a modest Elo edge (943 to 871), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Kianzad's striker game against Lansberg's all-rounder approach. Kianzad brings a versatile approach, while Lansberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Lina Lansberg. The model is firm on this one: Kianzad at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Kianzad at 82% implied while our model sees 87% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Brandon Jenkins (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jenkins.

Klose is rated at 1397 — 589 points above Jenkins's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Brandon Jenkins. The model is firm on this one: Klose at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ronson.

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 734 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ronson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Jesse Ronson. We're leaning Garcia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Garcia at 43% implied while our model sees 66% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Chris Barnett (2-3). Buday is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Buday is rated at 1183 — 322 points above Barnett's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Buday's all-rounder game against Barnett's striker approach. Buday is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barnett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Buday has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Buday over Chris Barnett. We're leaning Buday here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Trey Ogden (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Leavitt at 1198 versus Ogden at 1077. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leavitt throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Trey Ogden. We're leaning Leavitt here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Istela Nunes (0-4).

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 541 points above Nunes's 691. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Istela Nunes over Sam Hughes. We're leaning Nunes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Hughes, but our model sees only 27%. That 4-point gap favoring Nunes is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alatengheili (5-2-1) taking on Kevin Croom (0-2). Croom is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Alatengheili is rated at 1129 — 281 points above Croom's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alatengheili throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alatengheili over Kevin Croom. We're leaning Alatengheili here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.