UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Caio Borralho (7-0).

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 306 points above Borralho's 1570. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Borralho has won 7 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Caio Borralho.** We're leaning Imavov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Mauricio Ruffy (3-1).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 281 points above Ruffy's 1462. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Ruffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Mauricio Ruffy.** The model gives Denis a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bukauskas at 1168 versus Craig at 1045. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bukauskas's knockout artist game against Craig's wrestler approach. Bukauskas is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Paul Craig.** The model is firm on this one: Bukauskas at 78%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (2-2) taking on Bolaji Oki (2-1).

Jones is rated at 1175 — 254 points above Oki's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oki throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Oki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mason Jones over Bolaji Oki.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jones at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Axel Sola (0-0) taking on Rhys McKee (1-4). McKee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sola is rated at 1116 — 263 points above McKee's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKee throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McKee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rhys McKee over Axel Sola.** The model gives McKee a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (4-1) taking on Robert Ruchala (0-0). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Gomis.

Gomis is rated at 1279 — 312 points above Ruchala's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomis throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ruchala has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Gomis over Robert Ruchala.** We're leaning Gomis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Oumar Sy (2-1) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (2-3).

Sy is rated at 1201 — 278 points above Ribeiro's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sy throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oumar Sy over Brendson Ribeiro.** We're leaning Sy here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ante Delija (1-1) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tybura at 1242 versus Delija at 1112. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Delija has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Ante Delija.** The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kaue Fernandes (2-1) taking on Harry Hardwick (0-0).

Fernandes is rated at 1212 — 294 points above Hardwick's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fernandes throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fernandes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hardwick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kaue Fernandes over Harry Hardwick.** We're leaning Fernandes here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Sam Patterson (3-1) taking on Trey Waters (2-0).

Patterson is rated at 1343 — 268 points above Waters's 1075. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waters throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Waters has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Patterson over Trey Waters.** The model gives Patterson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Bryczek (0-1) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Bryczek is rated at 1091 — 166 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bryczek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Tavares over Robert Bryczek.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Andreas Gustafsson (1-0).

Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 377 points above Gustafsson's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Andreas Gustafsson.** The model gives Fakhretdinov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Shauna Bannon (2-1).

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 229 points above Bannon's 1003. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shauna Bannon over Sam Hughes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bannon at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.