UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Saturday, December 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 36%64% Daukaus
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEANMarket: 44% (-7.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +112(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.1(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Lewis)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 39%61% Thompson
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 33% (+6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Muhammad)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Lemos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lemos 74%26% Hill
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +340(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Lemos)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Simon 82%18% Assuncao
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+9.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Simon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Simon)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Gamrot won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gamrot 70%30% Ferreira
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Gamrot)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Swanson 53%47% Elkins
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-8.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Elkins)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R3)
Meerschaert 64%36% Stoltzfus
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 69% (-5.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +514(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Meerschaert)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Meerschaert)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Tafa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tafa 82%18% Hunsucker
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -138(favors Hunsucker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hunsucker)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Melissa Gatto won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gatto 54%46% Eubanks
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+14.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -36(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Gatto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Eubanks)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Jourdain won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jourdain 76%24% Ewell
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ewell)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Raquel Pennington won by Submission (R2)
Pennington 56%44% Chiasson
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 57% (-0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Chiasson)
HeavyweightHIT
Don'Tale Mayes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Mayes 52%48% Parisian
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-10.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Mayes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Parisian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Parisian)
LightweightHIT
Jordan Leavitt won by Submission (R2)
Leavitt 72%28% Sayles
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+15.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +121(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Sayles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Leavitt)