UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, October 9, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's StrawweightMISS
Marina Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Rodriguez 49%51% Dern
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +16(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Dern)
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 66%34% Gooden
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +339(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Brown)
FlyweightHIT
Matheus Nicolau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nicolau 68%32% Elliott
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Nicolau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Nicolau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Elliott)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mariya Agapova won by Submission (R3)
Agapova 40%60% Mazo
LEANMarket: 39% (+1.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Mazo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Agapova)
BantamweightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gutierrez 67%33% Colares
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +195(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Gutierrez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Colares)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexandr Romanov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Romanov 68%32% Vanderaa
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +281(favors Romanov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Vanderaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Romanov)
FeatherweightHIT
Damon Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 68%32% Rosa
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+5.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Jackson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loopy Godinez won by Submission (R1)
Godinez 71%29% Juarez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -101(favors Juarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Godinez)
LightweightHIT
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R2)
Garcia 67%33% Ontiveros
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -10(favors Ontiveros)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Garcia)