UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Walker at 1432 versus Santos at 1292. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Walker over Thiago Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walker at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Santos, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Walker is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Kyle Daukaus (3-4). Holland will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holland at 1257 versus Daukaus at 1170. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Daukaus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Kyle Daukaus.** We're leaning Holland here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 58% implied while our model sees 66% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Oliveira at 934 versus Price at 816. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Niko Price over Alex Oliveira.** The model gives Price a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Price, but our model sees only 55%. That 4-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6).

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 354 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jotko's striker game against Cirkunov's submission artist approach. Jotko brings a versatile approach, while Cirkunov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Misha Cirkunov.** The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 59% implied while our model sees 63% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Mike Breeden (0-3).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 497 points above Breeden's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Breeden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Mike Breeden.** We're leaning Hernandez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Joe Solecki (5-3).

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 178 points above Solecki's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gordon's striker game against Solecki's wrestler approach. Gordon brings a versatile approach, while Solecki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Solecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Solecki over Jared Gordon.** The model gives Solecki a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Gordon, but our model sees only 38%. That 7-point gap favoring Solecki is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (4-2) taking on Antonina Shevchenko (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: O'Neill at 1172 versus Shevchenko at 1027. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: O'Neill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shevchenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Antonina Shevchenko.** The model is firm on this one: O'Neill at 78%. Notably, the betting market has O'Neill at 66% implied while our model sees 78% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Rosa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 318 points above Correia's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Correia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karol Rosa over Bethe Correia.** The model is firm on this one: Rosa at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 79% implied while our model sees 93% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Mullarkey (6-6) taking on Devonte Smith (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mullarkey.

Mullarkey carries a modest Elo edge (947 to 869), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Mullarkey brings a versatile approach, while Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Devonte Smith.** The model gives Mullarkey a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Mullarkey at 42% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Gaetano Pirrello (0-1). Andrade will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Andrade is rated at 1146 — 292 points above Pirrello's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade over Gaetano Pirrello.** The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Stephanie Egger (3-3) taking on Shanna Young (1-2). Egger will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Egger carries a modest Elo edge (936 to 891), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Egger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephanie Egger over Shanna Young.** We're leaning Egger here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Egger at 53% implied while our model sees 71% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Johnny Eduardo (3-4). Eduardo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1082 — 209 points above Eduardo's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's striker game against Eduardo's all-rounder approach. Perez brings a versatile approach, while Eduardo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eduardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Johnny Eduardo.** The model is firm on this one: Perez at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.