UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Brian Ortega (8-4).

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 334 points above Ortega's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Brian Ortega.** We're leaning Volkanovski here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 627 points above Murphy's 1171. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy.** The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawler at 1297 versus Diaz at 1185. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Diaz's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Diaz over Robbie Lawler.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Lawler, but our model sees only 36%. That 23-point gap favoring Diaz is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5). Blaydes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 250 points above Rozenstruik's 1385. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.** The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 74% implied while our model sees 86% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1). Calvillo is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 204 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo.** We're leaning Andrade here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 69% for Andrade, but our model sees only 66%. That 3-point gap favoring Calvillo is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-5).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 712 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Marlon Moraes.** The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 68% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-4). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 216 points above Haqparast's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Hooker's all-rounder game against Haqparast's striker approach. Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Haqparast brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Dan Hooker.** The model gives Haqparast a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Daukaus (4-3) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Daukaus at 1108 versus Abdurakhimov at 1018. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Daukaus's striker game against Abdurakhimov's all-rounder approach. Daukaus brings a versatile approach, while Abdurakhimov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 10.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov.** We're leaning Daukaus here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Taila Santos (4-2) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7).

Santos is rated at 1262 — 283 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's wrestler game against Modafferi's striker approach. Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi.** The model is firm on this one: Santos at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Uros Medic (6-3). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Medic at 1484 versus Turner at 1393. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Turner's submission artist game against Medic's striker approach. Turner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Medic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 21.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Turner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Uros Medic over Jalin Turner.** We're leaning Medic here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 48% for Turner, but our model sees only 34%. That 13-point gap favoring Medic is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Maximov (2-1) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6). Maximov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Maximov at 959 versus Brundage at 870. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brundage throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Maximov over Cody Brundage.** The model gives Maximov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maximov at 55% implied while our model sees 58% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-5) taking on Martin Sano (0-0).

Sano carries a modest Elo edge (912 to 861), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Martin Sano.** We're leaning Semelsberger here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-3) taking on Omar Morales (3-3).

Pearce is rated at 996 — 170 points above Morales's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pearce's wrestler game against Morales's striker approach. Pearce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearce throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Omar Morales.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearce at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pearce at 40% implied while our model sees 54% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.