UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Cannonier is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cannonier at 1426 versus Gastelum at 1340. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Gastelum's all-rounder approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Kelvin Gastelum.** The model gives Cannonier a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cannonier at 56% implied while our model sees 61% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Madsen (4-1) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Madsen is rated at 1112 — 186 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Madsen's striker game against Guida's all-rounder approach. Madsen brings a versatile approach, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Madsen over Clay Guida.** The model gives Madsen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Parker Porter (4-3) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10). Sherman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Porter carries a modest Elo edge (883 to 822), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Parker Porter over Chase Sherman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Porter at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Porter at 37% implied while our model sees 50% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2-0) taking on Trevin Jones (1-3).

Kakhramonov is rated at 1182 — 323 points above Jones's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kakhramonov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevin Jones over Saidyokub Kakhramonov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jones at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kakhramonov at 42% implied while our model sees 46% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Pichel is rated at 1062 — 245 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pichel's all-rounder game against Hubbard's striker approach. Pichel is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hubbard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hubbard throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Austin Hubbard over Vinc Pichel.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hubbard at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Pichel, but our model sees only 46%. That 9-point gap favoring Hubbard is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Brandon Royval (7-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Royval.

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 183 points above Royval's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pantoja's all-rounder game against Royval's knockout artist approach. Pantoja is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Royval is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Royval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Royval over Alexandre Pantoja.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Royval at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Pantoja, but our model sees only 49%. That 11-point gap favoring Royval is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Austin Lingo (2-2) taking on Luis Saldana (2-1). Saldana will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Saldana at 1050 versus Lingo at 904. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lingo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lingo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lingo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Austin Lingo over Luis Saldana.** The model gives Lingo a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lingo at 48% implied while our model sees 60% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Domingo Pilarte (0-1). Pilarte is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pilarte at 882 versus Kelleher at 766. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pilarte is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Kelleher over Domingo Pilarte.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelleher at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Kelleher, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Pilarte is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Josiane Nunes (3-2) taking on Bea Malecki (2-0). Malecki is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Malecki at 973 versus Nunes at 866. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malecki throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Malecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bea Malecki over Josiane Nunes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Malecki at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 41% implied while our model sees 47% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features William Knight (3-3) taking on Fabio Cherant (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cherant.

There's a real Elo separation here: Knight at 838 versus Cherant at 744. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Knight over Fabio Cherant.** The model gives Knight a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2) taking on Roosevelt Roberts (4-4).

Bahamondes is rated at 1386 — 501 points above Roberts's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bahamondes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Roberts the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Roosevelt Roberts.** We're leaning Bahamondes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bahamondes at 41% implied while our model sees 67% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3) taking on Sasha Palatnikov (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Palatnikov.

Brahimaj is rated at 1144 — 330 points above Palatnikov's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palatnikov throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Palatnikov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj over Sasha Palatnikov.** The model gives Brahimaj a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.