UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Saturday, August 7, 2021·Houston, Texas, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Ciryl Gane won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gane 73%27% Lewis
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Gane)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Gane)
Bantamweight✗
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldo 47%53% Munhoz
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-4.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Munhoz)
Welterweight✓
Vicente Luque won by Submission (R1)
Luque 57%43% Chiesa
LEANMarket: 53% (+3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Chiesa)
Women's Strawweight✗
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 46%54% Hill
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-9.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Hill)
Bantamweight✗
Song Yadong won by Decision - Split (R3)
Yadong 48%52% Kenney
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Yadong)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Kenney)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kenney)
Lightweight✓
Rafael Fiziev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiziev 62%38% Green
LEANMarket: 73% (-10.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Fiziev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Green)
Bantamweight✗
Vince Morales won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morales 39%61% Rodriguez
LEAN
→Elo gap: +44(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rodriguez)
Light Heavyweight✓
Alonzo Menifield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Menifield 77%23% Herman
STRONGMarket: 68% (+9.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Herman)
Women's Strawweight✗
Jessica Penne won by Submission (R1)
Penne 43%57% Kowalkiewicz
LEANMarket: 48% (-4.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Penne)
Flyweight✓
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kape 52%48% Osbourne
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Osbourne)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Kape)
Bantamweight✓
Miles Johns won by KO/TKO (R3)
Johns 72%28% Santos
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +134(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Santos)
Women's Flyweight✓
Melissa Gatto won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gatto 63%37% Leonardo
LEANMarket: 52% (+11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Leonardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Leonardo)
Bantamweight✓
Johnny Munoz won by Submission (R2)
Munoz 75%25% Simmons
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -39(favors Simmons)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Munoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Munoz)