UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 435 points above Hall's 1378. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hall brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Strickland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Uriah Hall. We're leaning Strickland here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cheyanne Vlismas (2-1) taking on Gloria de Paula (1-2). Paula is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Vlismas is rated at 982 — 167 points above Paula's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paula throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Paula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Paula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheyanne Vlismas over Gloria de Paula. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vlismas at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jared Gooden (2-4) taking on Niklas Stolze (0-2). Gooden will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gooden is rated at 960 — 224 points above Stolze's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gooden throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stolze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Stolze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niklas Stolze over Jared Gooden. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stolze at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gooden at 38% implied while our model sees 49% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-1) taking on Collin Anglin (0-1).

Baghdasaryan is rated at 1056 — 280 points above Anglin's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anglin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anglin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anglin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Collin Anglin over Melsik Baghdasaryan. The model gives Anglin a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason Witt (2-3) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Barberena is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barberena at 960 versus Witt at 824. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Witt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Witt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Witt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Barberena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Jason Witt. We're leaning Barberena here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3) taking on Rafa Garcia (5-4).

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 418 points above Gruetzemacher's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gruetzemacher's striker game against Garcia's wrestler approach. Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Chris Gruetzemacher. We're leaning Garcia here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Chavez (1-1-1) taking on Kai Kamaka (1-2).

Chavez carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kamaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Kamaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka. The model gives Chavez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jinh Yu Frey (2-5) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Yoder carries a modest Elo edge (766 to 730), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Frey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yoder looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yoder the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoder throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Frey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ashley Yoder over Jinh Yu Frey. The model gives Yoder a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Zarrukh Adashev (1-2) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5). Benoit will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Adashev at 808, Benoit at 810. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Zarrukh Adashev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Benoit at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Adashev at 44% implied while our model sees 50% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Phil Rowe (4-4) taking on Orion Cosce (1-1). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Rowe is rated at 1041 — 241 points above Cosce's 800. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Cosce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Rowe over Orion Cosce. The model gives Rowe a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.