UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Cory Sandhagen (11-4). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sandhagen at 1707 versus Dillashaw at 1581. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over TJ Dillashaw. The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raulian Paiva (3-3) taking on Kyler Phillips (6-2). Phillips will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Phillips is rated at 1238 — 232 points above Paiva's 1007. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Paiva's striker game against Phillips's all-rounder approach. Paiva brings a versatile approach, while Phillips is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Raulian Paiva. The model is firm on this one: Phillips at 76%. The market implies 29% for Paiva, but our model sees only 24%. That 5-point gap favoring Phillips is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Darrick Minner (2-3). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 249 points above Minner's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Minner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Minner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darrick Minner over Darren Elkins. The model gives Minner a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Miranda Maverick (8-3).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 279 points above Maverick's 1264. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Maverick has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Barber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maverick throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Miranda Maverick. The model gives Barber a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 44% implied while our model sees 58% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-2) taking on Randy Costa (2-3). Costa is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Yanez is rated at 1203 — 402 points above Costa's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Randy Costa. We're leaning Yanez here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Yanez at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Punahele Soriano (6-4). Allen is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 409 points above Soriano's 1288. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Punahele Soriano. We're leaning Allen here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Ian Heinisch (3-3). Imavov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 839 points above Heinisch's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Heinisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Ian Heinisch. The model gives Imavov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Imavov at 43% implied while our model sees 63% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on Jordan Williams (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gall at 760, Williams at 768. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over Jordan Williams. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gall at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gall at 39% implied while our model sees 55% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Andre Ewell (4-4). Ewell will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Arce is rated at 1167 — 300 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ewell throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Andre Ewell. The model gives Arce a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Arce, but our model sees only 59%. That 4-point gap favoring Ewell is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-4) taking on Elise Reed (4-4). Eubanks will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Eubanks carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 933), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's all-rounder game against Reed's striker approach. Eubanks is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reed brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Reed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Elise Reed. We're leaning Eubanks here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Diana Belbita (2-5) taking on Hannah Goldy (1-3). Belbita is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Goldy carries a modest Elo edge (812 to 739), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Belbita is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Goldy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diana Belbita over Hannah Goldy. The model gives Belbita a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Belbita at 48% implied while our model sees 62% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.