UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Saturday, June 12, 2021·Glendale, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 9/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Adesanya 73%27% Vettori
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +313(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Vettori)
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Moreno won by Submission (R3)
Moreno 41%59% Figueiredo
LEANMarket: 33% (+8.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -270(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Figueiredo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Moreno)
WelterweightHIT
Leon Edwards won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Edwards 91%9% Diaz
STRONGMarket: 82% (+8.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +175(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Edwards)
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 79%21% Maia
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Maia)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Paul Craig won by KO/TKO (R1)
Craig 29%71% Hill
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Craig)
LightweightHIT
Brad Riddell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riddell 63%37% Dober
LEANMarket: 44% (+19.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -165(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Riddell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Riddell)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Eryk Anders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anders 50%50% Stewart
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Stewart)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Lauren Murphy won by Decision - Split (R3)
Murphy 45%55% Wood
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Wood)
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 65%35% Dawodu
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Evloev)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Pannie Kianzad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kianzad 66%34% Davis
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Davis)
LightweightMISS
Terrance McKinney won by KO/TKO (R1)
McKinney 30%70% Frevola
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+0.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -98(favors Frevola)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Frevola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Frevola)
FeatherweightMISS
Steven Peterson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Peterson 35%65% Hooper
LEANMarket: 52% (-16.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Peterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Peterson)
LightweightHIT
Fares Ziam won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Ziam 67%33% Vendramini
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -64(favors Vendramini)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Vendramini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Ziam)
HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Felipe won by Decision - Split (R3)
Felipe 61%39% Collier
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +127(favors Felipe)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Collier)