UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✗
Mario Bautista won by Submission (R2)
Bautista 38%62% Oliveira
LEAN
→Elo gap: +33(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Oliveira)
Flyweight✓
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horiguchi 64%36% Albazi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Horiguchi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Horiguchi)
Heavyweight✗
Rizvan Kuniev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kuniev 30%70% Almeida
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -596(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Kuniev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.8(favors Almeida)
Middleweight✓
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oleksiejczuk 72%28% Barriault
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +248(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Oleksiejczuk)
Bantamweight✓
Farid Basharat won by Decision - Split (R3)
Basharat 66%34% Matsumoto
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +191(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Matsumoto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Basharat)
Light Heavyweight✗
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jacoby 33%67% Walker
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +322(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Walker)
Welterweight✓
Daniil Donchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Donchenko 79%21% Morono
STRONG
→Elo gap: +222(favors Donchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Donchenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Donchenko)
Welterweight✗
Nikolay Veretennikov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Veretennikov 45%55% Price
LEAN
→Elo gap: -60(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Price)
Women's Strawweight✓
Ketlen Souza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Souza 51%49% Brasil
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Brasil)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Brasil)
Bantamweight✓
Javid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 54%46% Vazquez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +21(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Basharat)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Basharat)
Catch Weight✗
Wang Cong won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cong 45%55% Moura
LEAN
→Elo gap: -130(favors Moura)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Cong)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Moura)
Bantamweight✗
Jakub Wiklacz won by Submission (R3)
Wiklacz 45%55% Gafurov
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -101(favors Gafurov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gafurov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Gafurov)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Klaudia Sygula won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sygula 70%30% Cachoeira
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +4(favors Sygula)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Sygula)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sygula)