UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Cody Garbrandt (9-6). Font will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Font is rated at 1361 — 207 points above Garbrandt's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Font's all-rounder game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Font over Cody Garbrandt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Font at 50% implied while our model sees 54% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Yan Xiaonan (9-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Xiaonan.

There's a real Elo separation here: Xiaonan at 1412 versus Esparza at 1274. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Esparza's wrestler game against Xiaonan's striker approach. Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Xiaonan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Yan Xiaonan.** The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Esparza at 47% implied while our model sees 60% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Vanderaa (1-5) taking on Justin Tafa (4-4). Vanderaa is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tafa is rated at 938 — 267 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Tafa over Jared Vanderaa.** The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vanderaa at 38% implied while our model sees 43% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Felicia Spencer (2-3).

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 356 points above Spencer's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dumont's striker game against Spencer's all-rounder approach. Dumont brings a versatile approach, while Spencer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Norma Dumont over Felicia Spencer.** The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dumont at 41% implied while our model sees 64% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Bill Algeo (5-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

There's a real Elo separation here: Algeo at 914 versus Ramos at 828. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Bill Algeo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 47% implied while our model sees 55% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 197 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shahbazyan is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shahbazyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Shahbazyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Edmen Shahbazyan.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Hermansson, but our model sees only 56%. That 3-point gap favoring Shahbazyan is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Chris Barnett (2-3). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rothwell is rated at 1080 — 219 points above Barnett's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rothwell's all-rounder game against Barnett's striker approach. Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barnett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Rothwell over Chris Barnett.** We're leaning Rothwell here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Claudio Silva (5-2). McGee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McGee at 1037, Silva at 1053. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudio Silva over Court McGee.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for McGee, but our model sees only 36%. That 14-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-4) taking on Victor Rodriguez (0-1).

Silva is rated at 1203 — 404 points above Rodriguez's 799. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bruno Silva over Victor Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Culibao (3-3-1) taking on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2). Culibao is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Culibao at 972 versus Nuerdanbieke at 890. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Culibao's all-rounder game against Nuerdanbieke's striker approach. Culibao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Culibao throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nuerdanbieke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Josh Culibao.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nuerdanbieke at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features David Dvorak (3-2) taking on Juancamilo Ronderos (0-1). Dvorak is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dvorak at 956 versus Ronderos at 845. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvorak throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ronderos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ronderos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Dvorak over Juancamilo Ronderos.** The model gives Dvorak a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-1) taking on Rafael Alves (1-2). Ismagulov is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ismagulov is rated at 1202 — 245 points above Alves's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Rafael Alves.** The model is firm on this one: Ismagulov at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Ismagulov at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.