UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Saturday, May 1, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Jiri Prochazka won by KO/TKO (R2)
Prochazka 52%48% Reyes
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -263(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
Featherweight✓
Giga Chikadze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chikadze 67%33% Swanson
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+6.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Chikadze)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Chikadze)
Light Heavyweight
Cutelaba 53%47% Jacoby
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Cutelaba)
Middleweight✓
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Strickland 67%33% Jotko
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-1.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +198(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Jotko)
Bantamweight✓
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvalishvili 82%18% Stamann
STRONGMarket: 69% (+13.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Dvalishvili)
Women's Strawweight✗
Luana Pinheiro won by DQ (R1)
Pinheiro 49%51% Markos
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Markos)
Featherweight✓
TJ Brown won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brown 53%47% Kamaka
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -73(favors Kamaka)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Kamaka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Brown)
Women's Flyweight✗
Luana Carolina won by Decision - Split (R3)
Carolina 48%52% Botelho
TOSS-UPMarket: 31% (+17.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Carolina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Botelho)
Women's Strawweight✓
Loma Lookboonmee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lookboonmee 89%11% Hughes
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Lookboonmee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lookboonmee)
Middleweight✓
Andreas Michailidis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Michailidis 54%46% Bhullar
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -51(favors Bhullar)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Michailidis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bhullar)
Featherweight✓
Felipe Colares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Colares 52%48% Sanders
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+9.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Sanders)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Colares)