UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Saturday, April 10, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Vettori 72%28% Holland
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Vettori)
Featherweight✓
Arnold Allen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Allen 57%43% Yusuff
LEANMarket: 42% (+14.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Allen)
Middleweight✗
Julian Marquez won by Submission (R2)
Marquez 36%64% Alvey
LEANMarket: 63% (-26.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +134(favors Marquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alvey)
Women's Strawweight✓
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 67%33% Nunes
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (+23.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Nunes)
Welterweight✓
Daniel Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 52%48% Perry
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Perry)
Lightweight✓
Joe Solecki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Solecki 83%17% Miller
STRONGMarket: 68% (+14.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Solecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Solecki)
Lightweight✓
Mateusz Gamrot won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gamrot 74%26% Holtzman
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+5.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -336(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Gamrot)
Lightweight✗
John Makdessi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Makdessi 46%54% Bahamondes
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+9.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bahamondes)
Heavyweight✗
Jarjis Danho won by KO/TKO (R1)
Danho 38%62% Castro
LEAN
→Elo gap: +15(favors Danho)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Danho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Danho)
Bantamweight✓
Jack Shore won by Decision - Split (R3)
Shore 67%33% Azure
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +60(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Azure)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Shore)
Featherweight✗
Luis Saldana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saldana 49%51% Griffin
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +40(favors Saldana)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Griffin)
Light Heavyweight✓
Da Woon Jung won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jung 58%42% Knight
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Jung)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Knight)
Welterweight✓
Impa Kasanganay won by Submission (R2)
Kasanganay 79%21% Palatnikov
STRONGMarket: 72% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -234(favors Palatnikov)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Palatnikov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Palatnikov)