UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brunson at 1402 versus Holland at 1257. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brunson's wrestler game against Holland's knockout artist approach. Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Kevin Holland.** The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 39% implied while our model sees 56% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-9) taking on Song Kenan (6-4). Griffin will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Griffin at 1152 versus Kenan at 1007. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Griffin's all-rounder game against Kenan's striker approach. Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kenan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Griffin over Song Kenan.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-3) taking on Cheyanne Vlismas (2-1). Vlismas is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vlismas is rated at 982 — 262 points above Ruiz's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vlismas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vlismas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vlismas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheyanne Vlismas over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz.** The model gives Vlismas a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-2) taking on Gustavo Lopez (1-2). Yanez is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Yanez is rated at 1203 — 215 points above Lopez's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Gustavo Lopez.** The model is firm on this one: Yanez at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Yanez at 66% implied while our model sees 75% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Harry Hunsucker (0-2).

Tuivasa is rated at 1107 — 382 points above Hunsucker's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunsucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hunsucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Harry Hunsucker.** The model gives Tuivasa a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 268 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Chiasson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Reneau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Reneau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Marion Reneau.** We're leaning Chiasson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Leonardo Santos (7-2-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 296 points above Santos's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Grant Dawson over Leonardo Santos.** We're leaning Dawson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dawson at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-3). Dolidze is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 702 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Giles is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dolidze brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Giles the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dolidze throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevin Giles over Roman Dolidze.** We're leaning Giles here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Giles at 44% implied while our model sees 68% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Jesse Strader (0-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 625 points above Strader's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Strader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montel Jackson over Jesse Strader.** The model is firm on this one: Jackson at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Jackson at 85% implied while our model sees 90% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-4) taking on JP Buys (0-3).

Silva is rated at 1203 — 524 points above Buys's 679. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Buys has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JP Buys over Bruno Silva.** The model gives Buys a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.