UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-4). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Blachowicz at 1578, Adesanya at 1559. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Adesanya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Jan Blachowicz. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 77%. The market implies 32% for Blachowicz, but our model sees only 23%. That 9-point gap favoring Adesanya is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Megan Anderson (3-2). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 449 points above Anderson's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Megan Anderson. The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Petr Yan (11-4). Sterling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 186 points above Sterling's 1683. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Aljamain Sterling. The model gives Yan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Sterling, but our model sees only 45%. That 5-point gap favoring Yan is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1127 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Makhachev's wrestler game against Dober's knockout artist approach. Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dober is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Drew Dober. The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 77% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rakic at 1283, Santos at 1292. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Rakic's submission artist game against Santos's striker approach. Rakic is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rakic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Thiago Santos. We're leaning Rakic here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rakic at 59% implied while our model sees 71% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-2) taking on Casey Kenney (5-2).

Cruz is rated at 1446 — 212 points above Kenney's 1234. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Kenney's all-rounder approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Kenney is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenney throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Casey Kenney over Dominick Cruz. The model gives Kenney a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Song Yadong (11-3-1). Phillips will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 309 points above Phillips's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Song Yadong. The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Askar Askarov (3-0-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5). Askarov is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Askarov at 1285, Benavidez at 1291. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Askarov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Askarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Askar Askarov over Joseph Benavidez. The model gives Askarov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Askarov at 54% implied while our model sees 59% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Rogerio Bontorin (2-2).

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 471 points above Bontorin's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bontorin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Rogerio Bontorin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kara-France at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Kara-France, but our model sees only 51%. That 4-point gap favoring Bontorin is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Jordan Espinosa (2-3). Espinosa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 377 points above Espinosa's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elliott's wrestler game against Espinosa's striker approach. Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Espinosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Espinosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Elliott at 48% implied while our model sees 53% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Carlos Ulberg (8-1). Nzechukwu will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 732 points above Nzechukwu's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg has won 8 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Kennedy Nzechukwu. We're leaning Ulberg here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7).

Brady is rated at 1658 — 363 points above Matthews's 1295. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Matthews has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brady throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Brady over Jake Matthews. The model gives Brady a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Brady, but our model sees only 61%. That 4-point gap favoring Matthews is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Livinha Souza (3-2).

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 479 points above Souza's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lemos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Souza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Amanda Lemos. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Aalon Cruz (0-1). Cruz will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medic is rated at 1484 — 694 points above Cruz's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruz throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Aalon Cruz. We're leaning Medic here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Medic at 60% implied while our model sees 71% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Trevin Jones (1-3) taking on Mario Bautista (10-3).

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 707 points above Jones's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Bautista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones. The model is firm on this one: Bautista at 79%. The market implies 33% for Jones, but our model sees only 22%. That 11-point gap favoring Bautista is worth watching.