UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Saturday, January 23, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Poirier 58%42% McGregor
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Poirier)
LightweightMISS
Michael Chandler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chandler 31%69% Hooker
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -570(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Hooker)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Joanne Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 57%43% Eye
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Wood)
MiddleweightHIT
Makhmud Muradov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Muradov 69%31% Sanchez
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +179(favors Muradov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Sanchez)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Marina Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 34%66% Ribas
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -256(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Ribas)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsarukyan 66%34% Frevola
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Frevola)
MiddleweightMISS
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 33%67% Junior
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Junior)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julianna Pena won by Submission (R3)
Pena 70%30% McMann
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors McMann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors McMann)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Marcin Prachnio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Prachnio 45%55% Jr.
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -487(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Early Prelims
Catch WeightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Split (R3)
Evloev 79%21% Lentz
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Evloev)
FlyweightHIT
Amir Albazi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Albazi 68%32% Zhumagulov
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +265(favors Albazi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Albazi)