UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Saturday, December 19, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Thompson 53%47% Neal
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Neal)
BantamweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldo 47%53% Vera
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-9.7% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Vera)
WelterweightHIT
Michel Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 54%46% Williams
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+7.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -385(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -11.8(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Pereira)
BantamweightHIT
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R1)
Font 53%47% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Font)
HeavyweightMISS
Marcin Tybura won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tybura 45%55% Hardy
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-3.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Tybura)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 66%34% Morono
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +402(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Morono)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Pannie Kianzad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kianzad 50%50% Eubanks
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+8.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Eubanks)
Catch WeightHIT
Deron Winn won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Winn 51%49% Arroyo
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+11.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +27(favors Winn)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Winn)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Winn)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Taila Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 60%40% Robertson
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 49% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Santos)
MiddleweightHIT
Tafon Nchukwi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nchukwi 78%22% Pickett
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+4.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Pickett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pickett)
FlyweightMISS
Jimmy Flick won by Submission (R1)
Flick 40%60% Durden
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 58% (-18.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Durden)
Catch WeightHIT
Christos Giagos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Giagos 75%25% Minus
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +260(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Minus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Giagos)