UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Saturday, December 19, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Thompson 50%50% Neal
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+0.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +25(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Neal)
Bantamweight✗
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldo 37%63% Vera
LEANMarket: 57% (-19.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Vera)
Welterweight✓
Michel Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 54%46% Williams
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -255(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -11.8(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Pereira)
Bantamweight✓
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R1)
Font 54%46% Moraes
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Font)
Heavyweight✗
Marcin Tybura won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tybura 46%54% Hardy
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-2.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Tybura)
Welterweight✓
Anthony Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 66%34% Morono
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +370(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Morono)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Pannie Kianzad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kianzad 54%46% Eubanks
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+12.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Eubanks)
Catch Weight✓
Deron Winn won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Winn 52%48% Arroyo
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+12.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +0(favors Winn)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Winn)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Winn)
Women's Flyweight✓
Taila Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 66%34% Robertson
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+17.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -188(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Santos)
Middleweight✓
Tafon Nchukwi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nchukwi 77%23% Pickett
STRONGMarket: 74% (+3.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Pickett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pickett)
Flyweight✗
Jimmy Flick won by Submission (R1)
Flick 47%53% Durden
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-10.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Durden)
Catch Weight✓
Christos Giagos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Giagos 74%26% Minus
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +179(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Minus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Giagos)