UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira lands on Saturday, November 7, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira vs Thiago SantosLight Heavyweight | Glover Teixeira | Lean | 58% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Tanner BoserHeavyweight | Tanner Boser | Lean | 58% |
| Raoni Barcelos vs Khalid TahaBantamweight | Raoni Barcelos | Confident | 68% |
| Giga Chikadze vs Jamey SimmonsFeatherweight | Giga Chikadze | Lean | 63% |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Claudia GadelhaWomen's Strawweight | Yan Xiaonan | Lean | 64% |
| Trevin Giles vs Bevon LewisMiddleweight | Trevin Giles | Confident | 70% |
| Alexandr Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio de LimaHeavyweight | Alexandr Romanov | Lean | 56% |
| Darren Elkins vs Eduardo GaragorriFeatherweight | Eduardo Garagorri | Lean | 63% |
| Max Griffin vs Ramiz BrahimajWelterweight | Ramiz Brahimaj | Toss-up | 51% |
| Gustavo Lopez vs Anthony BirchakBantamweight | Anthony Birchak | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Glover Teixeira vs Thiago Santos
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9).
Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 304 points above Santos's 1292. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Teixeira's knockout artist game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Teixeira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Thiago Santos. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Andrei Arlovski vs Tanner Boser
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Tanner Boser (4-5).
There's a real Elo separation here: Boser at 984 versus Arlovski at 858. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Boser's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boser brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Boser is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tanner Boser over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Boser a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Raoni Barcelos vs Khalid Taha
The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Khalid Taha (1-3).
Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 587 points above Taha's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Khalid Taha. We're leaning Barcelos here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Giga Chikadze vs Jamey Simmons
The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Jamey Simmons (0-1). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Chikadze is rated at 1150 — 319 points above Simmons's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Simmons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Jamey Simmons. The model gives Chikadze a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Yan Xiaonan vs Claudia Gadelha
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-4).
Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 225 points above Gadelha's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Gadelha's all-rounder approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Gadelha is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Claudia Gadelha. The model gives Xiaonan a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Trevin Giles vs Bevon Lewis
The Middleweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on Bevon Lewis (1-2). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Lewis carries a modest Elo edge (901 to 845), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Trevin Giles over Bevon Lewis. We're leaning Giles here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Alexandr Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7).
Romanov carries a modest Elo edge (1307 to 1275), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lima is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Romanov the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Romanov throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Darren Elkins vs Eduardo Garagorri
The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Eduardo Garagorri (1-1).
Elkins is rated at 1113 — 238 points above Garagorri's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Garagorri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eduardo Garagorri over Darren Elkins. The model gives Garagorri a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Max Griffin vs Ramiz Brahimaj
The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-9) taking on Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3). Griffin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Griffin at 1152, Brahimaj at 1144. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Brahimaj has won 3 straight.
The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brahimaj is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brahimaj the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj over Max Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brahimaj at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Gustavo Lopez vs Anthony Birchak
The Bantamweight matchup features Gustavo Lopez (1-2) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-3). Birchak is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Lopez is rated at 988 — 181 points above Birchak's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Birchak over Gustavo Lopez. The model gives Birchak a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.