UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Thiago Santos (14-10).

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 251 points above Santos's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's knockout artist game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Teixeira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Thiago Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Teixeira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-18) taking on Tanner Boser (5-5).

Boser carries a modest Elo edge (1051 to 993), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Boser's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boser brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Boser is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Tanner Boser. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (10-4) taking on Khalid Taha (1-4).

Barcelos is rated at 1418 — 616 points above Taha's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Khalid Taha. The model gives Barcelos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-4) taking on Jamey Simmons (0-2). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chikadze is rated at 1280 — 525 points above Simmons's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Simmons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Jamey Simmons. We're leaning Chikadze here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-4) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-5).

Xiaonan is rated at 1476 — 233 points above Gadelha's 1243. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Gadelha's all-rounder approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Gadelha is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Claudia Gadelha. We're leaning Xiaonan here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-7) taking on Bevon Lewis (1-3). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Giles carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Bevon Lewis. We're leaning Giles here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (7-3) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Romanov at 1429 versus Lima at 1346. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Romanov's wrestler game against Lima's knockout artist approach. Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lima is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romanov throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romanov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-11) taking on Eduardo Garagorri (1-2).

Elkins is rated at 1191 — 309 points above Garagorri's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Garagorri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Eduardo Garagorri. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-10) taking on Ramiz Brahimaj (5-4). Griffin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Griffin at 1276 versus Brahimaj at 1178. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Brahimaj has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brahimaj is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brahimaj the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Ramiz Brahimaj. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Gustavo Lopez (1-2-1) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-4). Birchak is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lopez is rated at 1017 — 179 points above Birchak's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Birchak over Gustavo Lopez. The model gives Birchak a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.