UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Saturday, October 24, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates·12 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 90%10% Gaethje
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+15.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
MiddleweightHIT
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Whittaker 64%36% Cannonier
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 49% (+15.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +200(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Whittaker)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Volkov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Volkov 79%21% Harris
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 62% (+16.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Volkov)
MiddleweightHIT
Phil Hawes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hawes 68%32% Malkoun
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Malkoun)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Malkoun)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Malkoun)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Lauren Murphy won by Submission (R2)
Murphy 67%33% Shakirova
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +255(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Murphy)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ankalaev 72%28% Cutelaba
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-1.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +255(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Cutelaba)
HeavyweightHIT
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 66%34% Struve
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (+14.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Struve)
Catch WeightMISS
Casey Kenney won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenney 46%54% Wood
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-15.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Kenney)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Wood)
WelterweightMISS
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R1)
Rakhmonov 49%51% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-3.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -342(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Oliveira)
Early Prelims
Light Heavyweight
Jung 58%42% Alvey
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +290(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Jung)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alvey)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by KO/TKO (R1)
Maverick 82%18% Jojua
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +31(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Jojua)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Jojua)
LightweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by Submission (R1)
Alvarez 68%32% Yakovlev
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +204(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Yakovlev)