UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-5). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 552 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sandhagen's all-rounder game against Moraes's knockout artist approach. Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moraes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Marlon Moraes.** The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 55% implied while our model sees 62% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6). Barboza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 177 points above Amirkhani's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Amirkhani's wrestler approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Makwan Amirkhani.** The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Barboza, but our model sees only 62%. That 8-point gap favoring Amirkhani is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 162 points above Rothwell's 1080. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tybura's striker game against Rothwell's all-rounder approach. Tybura brings a versatile approach, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Ben Rothwell.** The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tybura at 41% implied while our model sees 64% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Markus Perez (2-4). Plessis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 1076 points above Perez's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Markus Perez.** We're leaning Plessis here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 59% implied while our model sees 68% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Alan Baudot (0-2).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 1199 points above Baudot's 718. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 13.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Baudot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Baudot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Alan Baudot.** The model is firm on this one: Aspinall at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Aspinall at 82% implied while our model sees 91% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Youssef Zalal (7-3-1). Zalal is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 561 points above Zalal's 1532. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Zalal has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Topuria's knockout artist game against Zalal's wrestler approach. Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zalal throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Ilia Topuria.** The model gives Zalal a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Breese (5-2) taking on KB Bhullar (0-1). Bhullar will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Breese is rated at 1141 — 315 points above Bhullar's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bhullar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bhullar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Breese over KB Bhullar.** We're leaning Breese here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Daukaus (4-3) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2). Nascimento will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Daukaus at 1108, Nascimento at 1092. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Daukaus's striker game against Nascimento's all-rounder approach. Daukaus brings a versatile approach, while Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Chris Daukaus.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nascimento at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Impa Kasanganay (2-1).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 767 points above Kasanganay's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kasanganay throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kasanganay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kasanganay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Impa Kasanganay over Joaquin Buckley.** The model is firm on this one: Kasanganay at 80%. The market implies 31% for Buckley, but our model sees only 20%. That 12-point gap favoring Kasanganay is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tony Kelley (2-1) taking on Ali AlQaisi (0-1). Kelley is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kelley is rated at 1080 — 246 points above AlQaisi's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelley throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. AlQaisi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. AlQaisi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ali AlQaisi over Tony Kelley.** We're leaning AlQaisi here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Omar Morales (3-3).

Chikadze is rated at 1150 — 324 points above Morales's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chikadze's all-rounder game against Morales's striker approach. Chikadze is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Omar Morales over Giga Chikadze.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Stephanie Egger (3-3). Egger will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cortez is rated at 1318 — 382 points above Egger's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cortez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Egger looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Egger the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cortez throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Egger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tracy Cortez over Stephanie Egger.** We're leaning Cortez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cortez at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1) taking on Bruno Silva (4-4). Ulanbekov is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ulanbekov carries a modest Elo edge (1261 to 1203), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ulanbekov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ulanbekov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ulanbekov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Bruno Silva.** The model gives Ulanbekov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.