UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Saturday, July 26, 2025·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✗
Reinier de Ridder won by Decision - Split (R5)
Ridder 45%55% Whittaker
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -181(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Ridder)
Bantamweight✓
Petr Yan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yan 62%38% McGhee
LEAN
→Elo gap: +360(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors McGhee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Yan)
Middleweight✓
Shara Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 69%31% Barriault
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barriault)
Flyweight✓
Asu Almabayev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Almabayev 64%36% Ochoa
LEAN
→Elo gap: +112(favors Almabayev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ochoa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Almabayev)
Light Heavyweight✗
Bogdan Guskov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Guskov 46%54% Krylov
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.8(favors Krylov)
Bantamweight✓
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 64%36% Nurmagomedov
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Mitchell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Mitchell)
Welterweight✗
Muslim Salikhov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salikhov 42%58% Leal
LEAN
→Elo gap: +190(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Leal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Salikhov)
Bantamweight✗
Davey Grant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grant 32%68% Blackshear
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Blackshear)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Blackshear)
Women's Strawweight✓
Tabatha Ricci won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ricci 54%46% Ribas
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ribas)
Light Heavyweight✗
Billy Elekana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elekana 44%56% Aslan
LEAN
→Elo gap: -75(favors Aslan)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Aslan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Elekana)
Featherweight✗
Steven Nguyen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Nguyen 41%59% Yahya
LEAN
→Elo gap: +85(favors Nguyen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Nguyen)
Heavyweight✓
Martin Buday won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buday 68%32% Buchecha
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +128(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Buday)