UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Tyron Woodley (9-5-1).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 169 points above Woodley's 1461. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Covington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley. The model is firm on this one: Covington at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Price will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cerrone is rated at 1054 — 238 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Price's knockout artist approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Price is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Niko Price. The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 43% implied while our model sees 57% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 1120 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Gerald Meerschaert. The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Chimaev at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6). Walker will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 315 points above Spann's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Walker's striker game against Spann's wrestler approach. Walker brings a versatile approach, while Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Johnny Walker. The model gives Spann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Walker, but our model sees only 44%. That 10-point gap favoring Spann is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1).

Dern is rated at 1472 — 498 points above Markos's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Markos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Randa Markos. The model gives Dern a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 317 points above Stewart's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Darren Stewart. We're leaning Holland here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features David Dvorak (3-2) taking on Jordan Espinosa (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dvorak at 956 versus Espinosa at 864. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Dvorak's all-rounder game against Espinosa's striker approach. Dvorak is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Espinosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Espinosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Espinosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Espinosa over David Dvorak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Espinosa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Mirsad Bektic (6-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jackson.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jackson at 1039, Bektic at 1010. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Damon Jackson. The model is firm on this one: Bektic at 85%. The market implies 24% for Jackson, but our model sees only 15%. That 10-point gap favoring Bektic is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1) taking on Mara Romero Borella (2-4). Borella will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1016 — 260 points above Borella's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Borella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva over Mara Romero Borella. We're leaning Silva here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4) taking on Sarah Alpar (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Clark at 762, Alpar at 785. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Alpar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sarah Alpar over Jessica-Rose Clark. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alpar at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Clark, but our model sees only 48%. That 17-point gap favoring Alpar is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Darrick Minner (2-3) taking on TJ Laramie (0-1). Minner will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Minner at 864, Laramie at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minner throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Minner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Laramie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Laramie over Darrick Minner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Laramie at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Randy Costa (2-3) taking on Journey Newson (1-3). Costa is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Costa at 801, Newson at 815. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Newson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Newson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Costa over Journey Newson. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Costa at 46% implied while our model sees 60% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Ewell (4-4) taking on Irwin Rivera (1-1). Ewell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Ewell at 867. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ewell throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Ewell over Irwin Rivera. The model is firm on this one: Ewell at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Ewell at 67% implied while our model sees 80% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tyson Nam (3-4) taking on Jerome Rivera (0-3). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nam is rated at 988 — 323 points above Rivera's 665. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nam throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Nam over Jerome Rivera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nam at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Nam, but our model sees only 55%. That 8-point gap favoring Rivera is worth watching.