UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-9) taking on Angela Hill (13-16).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hill at 1147 versus Waterson-Gomez at 1010. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michelle Waterson-Gomez over Angela Hill. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Waterson-Gomez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ottman Azaitar (2-3) taking on Khama Worthy (2-3). Worthy is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Azaitar at 828 versus Worthy at 726. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Worthy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ottman Azaitar over Khama Worthy. The model gives Azaitar a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Azaitar at 46% implied while our model sees 61% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Roxanne Modafferi (4-8) taking on Andrea Lee (5-9).

Modafferi carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 962), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Modafferi's striker game against Lee's all-rounder approach. Modafferi brings a versatile approach, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Roxanne Modafferi. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Modafferi at 27% implied while our model sees 35% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-12) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-5). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Herman is rated at 1139 — 327 points above Rodriguez's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Herman's all-rounder game against Rodriguez's striker approach. Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Ed Herman. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Herman at 32% implied while our model sees 38% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (15-12-1) taking on Alan Patrick (5-4). Patrick will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Green is rated at 1371 — 429 points above Patrick's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Patrick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Alan Patrick. We're leaning Green here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-5) taking on Kyle Nelson (5-6-1).

Nelson is rated at 1203 — 155 points above Quarantillo's 1049. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Quarantillo's all-rounder game against Nelson's striker approach. Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Kyle Nelson. We're leaning Quarantillo here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Quarantillo at 72% implied while our model sees 75% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-5) taking on Julia Avila (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Avila.

Eubanks carries a modest Elo edge (991 to 959), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's striker game against Avila's all-rounder approach. Eubanks brings a versatile approach, while Avila is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julia Avila over Sijara Eubanks. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Avila at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Eubanks at 28% implied while our model sees 48% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-5) taking on Kevin Croom (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

There's a real Elo separation here: Roberts at 943 versus Croom at 804. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Croom has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Kevin Croom. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (7-3) taking on Roque Martinez (0-3). Romanov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Romanov is rated at 1429 — 808 points above Martinez's 621. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Roque Martinez. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jalin Turner (8-6) taking on Brok Weaver (1-2). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1491 — 613 points above Weaver's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weaver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Turner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jalin Turner over Brok Weaver. The model is firm on this one: Turner at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Turner at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-10) taking on Anthony Ivy (0-2). Ivy is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Barberena is rated at 1089 — 313 points above Ivy's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ivy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Anthony Ivy. The model gives Barberena a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Barberena, but our model sees only 61%. That 8-point gap favoring Ivy is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sabina Mazo (3-4) taking on Justine Kish (3-4). Mazo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kish at 903 versus Mazo at 820. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Justine Kish. The model is firm on this one: Mazo at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Mazo at 68% implied while our model sees 80% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.