UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Hill is rated at 1074 — 166 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Angela Hill over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ottman Azaitar (2-2) taking on Khama Worthy (2-2). Worthy is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Azaitar carries a modest Elo edge (852 to 782), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Worthy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ottman Azaitar over Khama Worthy.** The model gives Azaitar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Azaitar at 46% implied while our model sees 58% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Roxanne Modafferi (4-7) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Modafferi at 979 versus Lee at 864. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Modafferi's striker game against Lee's all-rounder approach. Modafferi brings a versatile approach, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrea Lee over Roxanne Modafferi.** We're leaning Lee here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Herman is rated at 1045 — 235 points above Rodriguez's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Herman's all-rounder game against Rodriguez's striker approach. Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Ed Herman.** We're leaning Rodriguez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Alan Patrick (5-3). Patrick will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Green is rated at 1176 — 313 points above Patrick's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Patrick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Alan Patrick.** We're leaning Green here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Kyle Nelson (4-5-1).

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 305 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Quarantillo's all-rounder game against Nelson's striker approach. Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Kyle Nelson.** We're leaning Quarantillo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 67%. That 4-point gap favoring Nelson is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-4) taking on Julia Avila (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Avila.

Eubanks carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 933), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's striker game against Avila's all-rounder approach. Eubanks brings a versatile approach, while Avila is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julia Avila over Sijara Eubanks.** We're leaning Avila here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-4) taking on Kevin Croom (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

Roberts carries a modest Elo edge (885 to 848), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Croom has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Kevin Croom.** The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Roque Martinez (0-2). Romanov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 566 points above Martinez's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Roque Martinez.** The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Brok Weaver (1-1). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 508 points above Weaver's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weaver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Turner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jalin Turner over Brok Weaver.** The model is firm on this one: Turner at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Turner at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Anthony Ivy (0-1). Ivy is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barberena at 960 versus Ivy at 823. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ivy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Anthony Ivy.** We're leaning Barberena here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sabina Mazo (3-3) taking on Justine Kish (3-3). Mazo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kish at 900 versus Mazo at 804. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Justine Kish.** The model is firm on this one: Mazo at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Mazo at 68% implied while our model sees 78% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.