UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Saturday, September 5, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/7Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R5)
Overeem 64%36% Sakai
LEANMarket: 60% (+3.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Overeem)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ovince Saint Preux won by KO/TKO (R2)
Preux 65%35% Menifield
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Preux)
Welterweight✓
Michel Pereira won by Submission (R3)
Pereira 69%31% Imadaev
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +244(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Imadaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Pereira)
Middleweight✗
Andre Muniz won by Submission (R1)
Muniz 46%54% Fabinski
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+3.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Fabinski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Fabinski)
Featherweight✓
Brian Kelleher won by Submission (R1)
Kelleher 87%13% Rodriguez
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +178(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Kelleher)
Women's Flyweight✓
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 51%49% Rosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-13.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Araujo)
Bantamweight✓
Hunter Azure won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Azure 71%29% Smith
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -29(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Azure)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Smith)